We start by looking at the Buyer Classification data for June, and it showed that the expected decline for mortgaged investors’ market share (on the back of the LVR changes) is now firmly underway – and this time it’ll be emphasised by March’s tax changes too. In relation to the current buyer mix, we also cover off some technical aspects of survey evidence and why some results need to be interpreted carefully.
It’s also worth noting that the consultation on the Government’s proposals around interest deductibility closes today (12th July).
We then move on to discussing the Reserve Bank’s next monetary policy decision and how/when mortgage rates (and the wider economy) might be affected. Perhaps the most important point is that the official cash rate now looks set to rise sooner than had been expected – perhaps even this year, rather than second half of next year.
And finally it’s a look ahead to upcoming data – including net migration and rental prices. When it comes to the outlook for rents, our view is that they won’t spike as a result of the tax changes; but we won’t be dogmatically sticking to that view if the data shows it to be wrong.
Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz
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